The Political Wire

For weeks now newspapers and broadcasters have been full of speculation that the Prime Minister will reshuffle his Cabinet some time in September, with most of the speculation centring around when he will do it and who the winners and losers would be. Little if any commentary has asked the question can he actually do it.

Whenever a Prime Minister reorganises his top team there are bound to be winners and losers, it’s the nature of the beast, but when the PM in question lacks authority in the first place it can create more problems than it solves. You just have to look at John Major’s last attempts reshuffles to see this.

Gordon Brown not only risks placing more enemies on the backbenchers to sit next to those ex-cabinet members from the Blair years, who never liked Brown him when he was sitting in No 11. Brown may also be risking the threatened mass resignation of junior ministers.

Then there is the question of will people accept the “promotion” to the Brown Cabinet if offered, the though of formally loyal Brownites refusing to serve in his Cabinet is a serious possibility. If this were the case the Prime Minister would have limited options, he could bring back ex-cabinet members form the Blair era; this in itself is fraught with its own set of problems as Brown could not be guaranteed their loyalty or support should someone wield the knife. Also resurrecting the political careers of former Blair loyalists is hardly a refresh.

The key to any reshuffle will be David Miliband, will Gordon shuffle him to the Treasury? The more pertinent question is will Miliband accept the Treasury? Its clear that the PM is following the maxim of ‘keep your friends close and your enemies closer’ with this move, but what if Miliband refused, and lets face it who would want the Treasures portfolio in the current economic climate. The risk of Miliband refusing a promotion to Chancellor is too great of a risk for the Prime Minister, so he would only make the offer if he were guaranteed of getting the right answer. Even if Miliband did accept the Treasury brief this in itself is no sign of loyalty or support, indeed by promoting him to higher office the Prime Minister is in danger of creating is very own Geoffrey Howe.

Clearly this is a difficult time for the Prime Minister, he has very little political capital left and very few options on the table for revitalising his government. What Brown needs to momentum, forward momentum instead of backwards, but with few energising policies on the horizon and all his political capital looking like the balance sheet of Northern Rock its going to be a painful couple of months for the PM

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PoliticsHome has published its monthly opinion poll of the UK’s leading politicians with some interesting results.

Caroline Spelman has seen the biggest turnaround in public opinion; indeed she is the month’s biggest winner with a 2% increase in popularity. Although a good achievement this has little to do with her own performance as an MP and can be put down to the fact that her ‘nannygate’ affair has fallen from the news cycle.

Labours leader in waiting David Miliband has also seen a sharp fall in his popularity according to the poll; gone are the day’s back in April and May when he enjoyed a rating of –17. Today according to the PoliticsHome group of “5000 regular voter” he has fallen 6%, this is put down to speculation that he wants the top job and is plotting to oust Gordon from the thrown.

So how is the limp wrested Prime Minister doing then, well he is quite clearly one of the most disliked politicians in the UK, coming in at 22 out of 23 PM’s, only Alistair Darling faired worst on –47. PoliticsHome reads it as a month of two half for the PM, the true of the matter is that was a dire month showing that Brown has little room left ether in relation to policy or authority. Talk of a reshuffle in mid September may steady the good ship Cabinet for a month or two, but with the pressure mounting and news that former ministers are now planning an alternative policy agenda its clear there is little hope for the Brown.

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Dizzy has an interesting story from today’s Sunday Telegraph that has wide ranging consequences not only for the Home Office, but also for every single governmental department. It will also make an already sceptical and increasingly cynical public question the Governments use of the media to propagate its policy ideas.

In essence the Governments have been using tax payers’ money to fund the production of commercial documentaries for broadcast on commercial television with the purpose of showing their policies or activities in a sympathetic light.

So far the Governments has spent over £2 million pounds on various programs, ranging from a documentary about an Army expedition to climb Everest, to advice for small businessmen on how to improve their company’s fortunes.

The most controversial however has been a Home Office funded “documentary” about wonabe police officers Police Community Support Officers called “Beat: Life on the Street” and how marvellous these dedicated and helpful individuals are for local communities. After paying £800,000 for the first two series, the Government is now planning on throwing even more tax payers money at the subject by funding a third series of the documentary propaganda.

Some people will say that PCSO’s are indeed valued by the communities that they patrol, and any programming that shows the hard and sometimes dangerous work they carry out on a daily basis is good value for money. However there is a world of difference between a documentary series made by an independent production company, and a piece of programming that is commissioned and funded by the Government to promote their policies, without declaring their involvement in the production.

Not only was the Home Office involved in the funding and commissioning of the program, the Telegraph also reports that officials within the Home Office were able to see the second edit of individual episodes and suggest changes to some of the “terminology” and “language” used in the narration.

Media watchdog Ofcom has opened an investigation into the program to see whether it breached its broadcasting code, and The Campaign for Press and Broadcasting Freedom said that it was a disturbing trend in Government attempts to influence television programming.
Renowned Channel 4 newsreader Jon Snow said: “I find it extraordinary. So the Government is funding commercial television productions highlighting government policy? Presumably they don’t criticise government policy.”

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A lot of you may have been wondering where I have been over the last two months, well the answer is I have been recovering from a rather serious car crash, and have only just been discharged from hospital.

My recovery will be slow, and more than likely painful (I already hate my physiotherapist with a distain that I have until now, reserved for chavs and town centre alcoholics.) I will get back into my writing groove as soon a possible, and begin to post once again on a regular basis, until then my post may be limited to one or two a day.

I do hope that you will bear with me while I travel the road to recovery.

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You would have thought that, while in the financial nightmare Labour currently finds itself, hiring new staff would be the last thing on their mind, but as we know thats not the New Labour way. As they see it what better way to dig yourself out of the financial doldrums than to hire a duo of “High value fundraising officers” and a “High value fundraising assistant.”

For some reason I think it’s going to take a lot more than 3 new fundraisers to dig the party out of its £24m whole. Anyone have a Lavy or two.

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